Thursday, 10 November 2011

Even Seasons -part 2

As before (here), the draw has been "well received" but none-the-less remains short of "complete equity".
Working on a rather basic #FootyMaths calculation (total of opposition ratings, less home/away difference), the numbers showed that;
     - The best draw went to Adelaide, Fremantle, Melbourne and Gold Coast, and
     - The toughest draw belonged to Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Sydney and Geelong.

But this is a fairly simple measure. It is only calculated on the strength of the opposition, and therefore does not take other factors into consideration.
So again, under the auspices of the Godfather of FootyMaths (idlesummers.com), another measure has been calculated. This time, a rather more complicated series of equations are used, that incorporates
      - average quality of the opposition
      - expectations of a 'win' for each game
      - expected end of season ranking and an expected end of season ranking for
     a perfectly even draw
      - difference between those two totals.

This shakes the teams into a 'best and worst affected by the draw' into to the shape as below.

This actually gives a genuine Armchair Ride to Adelaide, who clearly have a better rank than others, but the softest of soft draws.

Lucking out and getting the real Tough Draw is Sydney and the  Western Bulldogs. Both are punished relative to their ranking and ladder position from 2011.

Notable, getting an easy run in 2012 is a team that finished in the top 8 in 2011, yet has a relatively easy draw.
Fair to say that if the Bombers have a 2012 revival, you can put it down more to the draw, and less to the Hird Factor.

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