Thursday, 17 August 2017

22. RECKONING

In the last round post, the comment was made that there were some big games ahead. More moments of Reckoning are ahead.
The Friday night 'Greater Western' looks the game of the round. Dogs must win to stay alive.
 The Bulldogs didn't win, but do still have a flicker let in their flame.

No wait, its Geelong - Richmond. Tigers must win to prove credentials.
 Richmond didn't win, but also didn't disappoint greatly. A 14 point loss a bad result, but it did look likelt to get right wawy from them early, so to pull it back will be a minor positive.

No wait, its Essendon - Adelaide. Dons must win to stay alive for the 8 and prove credentials.
Essendon didn't win either, and actually went worse than expected. Have not proven their top 8 credentials yet (currently 3 wins, 6 losses). They do have Gold Coast and Fremantle coming, so could sneak a top 8 spot.

No wait, its Melbourne - St Kilda. An early elimination final for you all.
And so that came to pass. St Kilda are basically finished for the year, while Melbourne live on, needing to win again to be sure



So this week, there are other big defining games at hand. But before that, following on from the SWARMS analysis, which attempts to predict the end of season ladder, the below table has been generated from the same data run.

This table is made by the same principles but now applying them to the finals series as well.

And interestingly, it is predicting the one time 0-6 Swans to be favourite for turning up to the Grand Final.


POTENTIAL FINALISTS - SEPTEMBER RUNS
EF / QFSEMISPRELIMGRAND F
Adelaide1001710050
GWS100347443
Geelong100616127
Richmond10079336
Sydney/SMFC100998662
Port Adelaide100604012
Melbourne98163<1
Essendon96314<1
W Bulldogs/FFC521<1
West Coast11<1<1

So, in the above there are 10 teams listed, for they are the teams the SWARMS analysis has determined are likely to finish in the top 8.
In week 1 of the finals, 6 teams are listed at 100%, meaning they are most likely to make the 8. There are four others sub 100%.
In the latter weeks of the finals, there are diminished values as teams chances drop off.

And yes - there can be scenarios such as GWS where the chance of making the Prelim week is higher than the Semis.


The Wash-Up

Yet another 7 from nine. And also a Sunday where two results were very close to the tipped margin.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
W Bulldogs/FFCvGWSDockW Buby4pts53GWSby48ptsW Bu-19GWS19
Sydney/SMFCvFremantleSCGSydnby53pts85Sydnby104ptsSydn29Frem-19
GeelongvRichmondKardGeelby26pts70Geelby14ptsGeel-9Rich15
Brisbane LionsvGold CoastGabbGoldby13pts40Brisby58ptsBris29Gold-30
EssendonvAdelaideDockAdelby19pts36Adelby43ptsEsse-9Adel17
West CoastvCarltonSubiWestby40pts79Westby17ptsWest-11Carl7
MelbournevSt KildaMCGMelbby3pts52Melbby24ptsMelb8St K-8
HawthornvNorth MelbourneYorkHawtby26pts70Hawtby27ptsHawt5Nort-15
Port AdelaidevCollingwoodAdelPortby29pts72Portby27ptsPort-16Coll9


The ranks show little changes through the table, with not much notable.
AFTER ROUND21ptstable
1Adelaide1387170
2Sydney/SMFC1311290
3GWS1233192
4Geelong1223-9-1
5Port Adelaide1207-16-1
6West Coast1146-110
7Richmond1119151
8W Bulldogs/FFC1115-19-1
9Hawthorn109550
10Melbourne109280
11Collingwood107591
12Essendon1064-9-1
13St Kilda1051-80
14North Melbourne944-150
15Carlton90271
16Fremantle881-19-1
17Gold Coast820-300
18Brisbane Lions757290


Brisbane. Forlorn in last. But its not all doom and gloom.
Over the stretch of the season they have improved from about 600 to over 750.
Recovery is at hand.


The Week Ahead

Well now. We have another interesting set of games.

Adelaide and Sydney will be fun. If the Swans win, then the top 4 is opening up. A loss would be interesting for Sydney too.

The Bulldogs may rue playing in Ballarat if they lose to Port and the door is shut on September.

Geelong are tipped to beat Collngwood - as they were earlier this year, and last year and twice the year before . In those 4 games, Collingwood won three. Not an easy game for the Cats.

GWS should win at home. Because GWS are better. And West Coast don't travel. This should be 'shut the gate' on the Eagles.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
AdelaidevSydney/SMFCAdelAdelby21pts66
W Bulldogs/FFCvPort AdelaideBallPortby10pts42
CollingwoodvGeelongMCGGeelby16pts38
GWSvWest CoastSydSGWSby22pts67
Gold CoastvEssendonCarrEsseby13pts40
CarltonvHawthornDockHawtby20pts34
MelbournevBrisbane LionsMCGMelbby48pts83
St KildavNorth MelbourneDockSt Kby11pts59
FremantlevRichmondSubiRichby12pts40


Melbourne should be able to get past the Lions, particularly at home. Don't discount Brisbane though. They are showing no signs of putting the cue in the rack yet.

The last game that matters for the top eight is Fremantle's last game at Subi. Another mountain to climb for Richmond.


Good tipping, all.