Thursday, 22 June 2017

14. CONFIDENTLY WITHOUT CONFIDENCE

During the season, the SWARMS page has been doing its thing of estimating who will finish where on ladder at the end of the season, round by round. The current iteration is in the link here, and the tab WIN at the bottom left should shoot you over to a prediction of wins for the year. At present the cut-off is expected to be 12 wins and percentage to play in September

With 10 games to play for all teams, and in the midst of one of the most even seasons in recent memory, it is clearly not a season anyone wants to make solid predictions on.

So the thought came to look to the next 10 weeks, week by week and club by club, to see if there was some way to estimate the outcomes, and provide some confidence to the possible wins ahead.

So in a first-up effort, the below charts have been generated. Simply they are showing a team and a confidence level when matched to opponents. The below are FMI rankings based with influences from ground, location and form.

In an attempt to make these understandable, bar charts were used, with coloured segments representing the strength of conviction. The darker the green, the more the expectation of a win. The darker the grey, the expectation is stronger for a loss.
Those most lightest shades are where the judgement is unclear but leaning to one side over the other.

Also under each team chart is the current need for each club to make the 8 at a minimum (assuming 12 wins is needed), as well as a short assessment of how attainable the finals are. Again, these assume teams will play to within an expectation level, and upsets (as per Essendon defeating Port Adelaide) will alter these, in some cases dramatically.


In later iterations of this, there are plans to add error allowances around each confidence outcome. But for now, with a nice 'round number' of remaining games, its worthwhile rolling this out for comment as is.


The Wash Up:

Round thirteen and the end of the byes. 50-50.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
West CoastvGeelongSubiWestby8pts56Westby13ptsWest2Geel-5
North MelbournevSt KildaDockNortby5pts54St Kby17ptsNort-17St K8
RichmondvSydney/SMFCMCGSydnby6pts46Sydnby9ptsRich-1Sydn3
Port AdelaidevBrisbane LionsAdelPortby77pts94Portby40ptsPort-16Bris24
Gold CoastvCarltonCarrGoldby17pts63Carlby10ptsGold-9Carl19
W Bulldogs/FFCvMelbourneDockW Buby18pts64Melbby57ptsW Bu-28Melb32

As was the tipping.
Very close on a few margins, and out by lots on others.
Swings, roundabouts, and that.


Onto the table, Melbourne jump up 3 places to be the 8th best team, just edging Collingwood.
Good to see some strong green numbers at the foot of the table too.


AFTER ROUND13ptstable
1Adelaide13820
2GWS12930
3Port Adelaide1257-160
4Geelong1240-50
5Sydney/SMFC123230
6West Coast120221
7W Bulldogs/FFC1200-28-1
8Melbourne1084323
9Collingwood1082-1
10North Melbourne1056-17-1
11Richmond1053-1-1
12St Kilda103580
13Hawthorn10010
14Essendon9730
15Gold Coast893-90
16Fremantle8830
17Carlton882190
18Brisbane Lions683240


The table basically remains fractured though, with blocks of teams from 1st to 7th before a gap to 8th to 14th. And 15th to 18 is another gap away.


The Week Ahead:

Back to a full round of games and still the heaven/hell* that is Thursday night footy.
* circle as appropriate.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
AdelaidevHawthornAdelAdelby53pts85
Sydney/SMFCvEssendonSCGSydnby40pts79
CollingwoodvPort AdelaideMCGPortby6pts45
Brisbane LionsvGWSGabbGWSby51pts15
W Bulldogs/FFCvNorth MelbourneDockW Buby15pts62
West CoastvMelbourneSubiWestby25pts69
GeelongvFremantleKardGeelby50pts84
RichmondvCarltonMCGRichby18pts64
St KildavGold CoastDockSt Kby28pts71


How can Collingwood vs Port be the close one?
Otherwise, it's 7 home and 2 away this week, in one of the most lopsided (by that measure at least) rounds of the year.

Do your tips (today, Thursday!) to beat the deadlines or lockouts or whatever... and good tipping.