Wednesday, 17 January 2018

AFLW 2 - TWO WEEKS

There is now two weeks to go before Season Two of the AFLW starts, so of course its time for some FMI ranking based "analysis".


So before looking at the season ahead, the below table lists the current ranking of teams after season 2017.



FMI RANKINGS
TEAMPTS
1Adelaide1071
2Brisbane Lions1049
3Melbourne1039
4Carlton1025
5W Bulldogs/FFC987
6Collingwood979
7Fremantle937
8GWS908


These were of course generated over the short span of play last year. With so few games played to date, and therefore so few data points and opportunities to impact the rankings, we see a reasonably closely aligned set of teams.


Heading into 2018, the AFL has released the fixture as per this link, and again it sees each team playing 7 games. One game against each other team, and of course some teams playing 4 times as the nominal 'home' team, and others playing 'home' three times.

Applying the FMI rankings to the AFLW fixture, and using those those rankings to calculate how hard each teams fixture is, the below table can be formed.


TOUGH DRAW INDEX (TDI) - 2018
TEAMPOSFMI
RANK
SUM
OPP'N
H / A BONUSTDI
1Carlton4102569692000.69
2W Bulldogs/FFC698770071000.42
3GWS8908708500.30
4Brisbane Lions2104969451000.26
5Collingwood5979701500.08
6Adelaide1107169230-0.24
7Fremantle79377056-200-0.60
8Melbourne310396954-200-0.90

Once again, the close grouped teams and the shortness of the season is impacting the data, but nominally Carlton look to have the hardest fixture, while Melbourne an Fremantle have an easier run. You will also notice the Home/Away Bonus data is a real driver here, polarising the teams.



If we use the ranking data and combine it with the AFLW fixture and determine some performance criteria based on ranking, some forward predictions of the season can be made.
Once again, with minimal variables available from the minimalist season, the below table is highly reflective of the current rankings.


FMI RANKING-BASED PREDICTIONS (2018)
LADDER POSITION12345678
1Adelaide362416117421
2Brisbane Lions2423181410731
3Melbourne1819191613952
4Carlton11151717151384
5W Bulldogs/FFC61014161817127
6Collingwood47101418201710
7Fremantle124712182729
8GWS1247132648

Further, with the teams so closely aligned by FMI ranking points, the spread of percentage chances to finish in a position of the ladder is also widely spread.

At the end of season 2018 of the AFLW, there will be more data 'under the belt' which will impact the above... before all the tables, fixtures and predictions get modified for the expanded 2019 season...
Onward and upward!


OK, but before that we still have Season 2018 to play, so here are the FMI expected outcomes for Round 1.

HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTION
CarltonvCollingwoodPrinces5pts
MelbournevGWSCasey F20pts
AdelaidevBrisbane LionsNorwood9pts
W Bulldogs/FFCvFremantleWestern11pts


So lets get the second summer of footy underway!